On November 30, 2011, the ministry of industry and information technology (miit) officially released the 12th five-year plan for the development of basic machinery parts, basic manufacturing technology and basic materials industry (hereinafter referred to as the plan).

"The plan" proposed that through five years of efforts, China's mechanical basic parts, basic manufacturing technology and basic materials (hereinafter referred to as "three basic") industry innovation capacity is significantly enhanced, the processing and manufacturing level is significantly improved, can basically meet the development needs of major equipment, industrial development seriously lagging behind the situation is changed.

In the plan, bearing and gear are identified as key industries in urgent need of development. It is estimated that with the support of policies, the sales volume of the bearing industry in China will reach 222 billion yuan by 2015, and the average annual growth rate of the industry will be between 12% and 15%.

According to the 2012-2015 analysis report on production and sales demand forecast and transformation and upgrading of China's bearing manufacturing industry released by qianzhan industry research institute, the process of industrialization and urbanization has brought about a significant increase in sales volume of relevant industries such as automobile, construction machinery, electrical appliances, machine tools and other industries in recent years, thus driving the rapid growth of bearing demand.Industry sales increased from 62 billion yuan in 2006 to 191.097 billion yuan in 2011, ranking the third in the world in terms of industry output value.

Forward-looking industry institute bearing manufacturing industry research group analysis, the main cause of the high end bearing structural imbalance between supply and demand is our most bearing enterprises in such aspects as research and development strength, the production process is relatively backward, only a small amount of research and development strength, leading production technology companies who are capable of producing high technology content high bearing, inadequate capacity supply shortages.

The bearing manufacturing research group of qianzhan industry research institute mainly analyzed the business conditions and development plans of leading enterprises in the bearing industry, and found that the products of such companies were mainly positioned at "high, precise, sophisticated, special and specialized", mostly focusing on the small molecule market with high technical barriers and large space for import substitution.

The precision of rolling bearing is generally divided into P0, P6, P5, P4 and P2. The bearing precision used on the spindle of precision machine tools should be P5 and above, while for the spindle support of high-speed and high-precision machine tools such as CNC machine tools and machining centers, P4 and above should be used.P4 and higher ultra-precision bearings require high technical performance and reliability, and more than half of the domestic demand depends on imports.

At present, only a few domestic companies, such as zhenyan technology, are able to mass-produce products of this grade, so there is a huge space for replacement in the future market.For example, in 2011, the output of domestic CNC metal cutting machine tools reached 257,000, and according to the estimation of one spindle per machine tool, the domestic market capacity of ultra-precision bearing of P4 and above was about 250,000 sets.In addition, the application rate of CNC machine tool motorized spindle in China is less than 10%, far lower than the level of developed countries.

At present, there are only a few companies in China that can produce the motorized spindle of CNC machine tools, such as shaoxing technology and mingde technology, most of which need to be imported."Planning" will help speed up the replacement process of high-end bearing imports.According to the plan, the sales volume of the bearing industry will reach 222 billion yuan by 2015, and the CAGR= 13.2% in the next five years.

Analysis and judgment of bearing manufacturing research group of qianzhan industry research institute, high-end bearing will be the focus of development.According to the 12th five-year plan for the bearing industry, the independence rate of bearings in key areas can be doubled, and there is a wide space for import substitution.It is expected that domestic bearing enterprises with advanced technology and high-end products will enjoy the fruits of high-end bearing import substitution.